BloombergNEF cuts 2026 solar forecast as China installations slump
Global installations are now expected to fall 10.8% to 584 gigawatts, while markets outside China are growing slightly faster than predicted.
BloombergNEF now expects 584 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity to be installed worldwide in 2026, down 10.8% from 655 GW in 2025, as a steep slowdown in China outweighs growth elsewhere.
The forecast is the research firm's latest downgrade. In December it projected 649 GW for 2026, and in the first quarter of 2025 it expected 753 GW.
BloombergNEF expects China to install 271 GW this year, down 29% from 383 GW in 2025. China added about 71.8 GW in the first half of 2026, compared with 212.2 GW a year earlier, as a new five-year plan shifted the focus from capacity toward energy storage. BloombergNEF analyst Jenny Chase attributed the slowdown to market saturation.
Outside China, installations are on track for about 313 GW, slightly above the firm's earlier projection of 308 GW and up from 272 GW in 2025. Growth is coming from markets including India, the Philippines, Nigeria and Malaysia, with residential and commercial systems driving almost all of the gains in Nigeria and the Philippines.
Chase said a big theme of 2026 has been the absence of any major market booms.
This brief is based on an article published Oct. 15, 2026, by John Fitzgerald Weaver in pv magazine. Read the original: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2026/10/15/china-solar-down-29-everywhere-else-up-15/
This article was produced with the assistance of AI tools and reviewed by an editor before publication.
