Kew scientists warn of 'silent destruction' as climate crisis weakens trees from within
Trees weakened by record summer heat could fall en masse in autumn storms expected to be triggered by El Niño, scientists warn.
Scientists at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew in London have warned that the extreme heatwaves that hit the UK in summer 2026 have structurally weakened trees. According to Kevin Martin, manager of Kew's tree collection, the El Niño-driven severe storms expected this autumn could trigger mass tree falls and branch breakage in trees whose resilience has already diminished.
Experts describe what is happening as trees waging an invisible war. Climate change is a two-stage attack: first, prolonged heat and drought exhaust trees physiologically; then, severe storms destroy them physically.
'False autumn' and energy bankruptcy
According to Kew Gardens official Kevin Martin, the record temperatures recorded in summer 2026 triggered a defence mechanism in trees known as 'false autumn'. Trees that shed their leaves far earlier than normal to survive exhausted the critical energy reserves they needed to prepare for winter.
This has led to extreme fragility in plant tissues. Kew's observations have revealed that the 'summer branch drop' phenomenon has become widespread in trees under heat stress. The phenomenon — in which large, healthy branches suddenly break off with no visible physical cause — is the most concrete indicator of internal weakening in woody tissues.
Storm risk multiplies with El Niño
According to forecasts from the UK Met Office, the El Niño cycle activating in autumn 2026 will strengthen low-pressure systems arriving from the North Atlantic. This means increased storm frequency and intensity across the UK. The real danger is this: trees' capacity to withstand these storms has already been significantly reduced.
Kew estimates that root systems lose their grip in soil dried out by extreme heat. Combined with sudden heavy rainfall loosening the ground, trees' capacity to withstand high winds is calculated to have fallen by up to 30%. This means that, as in the major storms of 1987 and 2022, the trees already under physiological stress will suffer the greatest damage.
A similar picture for Türkiye
This mechanism is not unique to the UK. In Türkiye, particularly Istanbul's historic plane trees and the forests of the Aegean and Mediterranean regions face a comparable threat. After the extreme heat of the summers of 2023 and 2024, a noticeable increase was recorded in the rate of weakened trees falling during severe lodos and karayel winds in the Marmara Region.
Although El Niño's effect on Türkiye usually manifests as a rainy winter, the real problem is the severe winds that arrive immediately after dry summer months. The situation is regarded as a striking example of how the effects of the climate crisis are not linear, but compound damage through cascading reactions that trigger one another.
This article was produced with the assistance of AI tools and reviewed by an editor before publication.
