Lula's forest enforcement has kept at least 20,000 square kilometers of Amazon standing, analysis finds

At least 20,000 square kilometers of Brazilian Amazon, an area about the size of New Jersey, has escaped clearing since President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took office, according to an analysis by Carbon Brief.

The estimate lands as Brazil heads into a presidential election that pits Lula against Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, with polls showing the two tied. Brazil is the world's fourth-largest emitter, largely because of deforestation.

Annual Amazon deforestation more than halved under Lula, from 11,594 square kilometers in 2022 to 5,731 in 2025. Preliminary satellite alerts for August 2025 through July 2026 point to 2,874 square kilometers, and experts expect the final figure could be the lowest since records began in 1988.

The analysis compares actual forest loss with a scenario, modeled by researchers at the University of Oxford, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and Brazil's National Institute for Space Research, in which the country's forest code goes unenforced, a proxy for a second Jair Bolsonaro term. Aline Soterroni, the Oxford researcher who led that modeling, said the scenario is "relatively conservative," and other experts said the real toll could have been much higher.

Jair Bolsonaro, now in prison for plotting a coup after his 2022 defeat, weakened environmental enforcement during his 2019-2022 term. Flávio Bolsonaro, whom experts describe as a climate skeptic, has signaled he would continue his father's agenda. "In a matter of a few months, they can destroy what has been constructed over decades of environmental policy and activism in Brazil," said David Lapola, an ecologist at the University of Campinas.

This brief is based on an analysis published Sept. 28, 2026, by Carbon Brief. Read the original: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-lula-presidency-saved-at-least-20000km2-of-brazilian-amazon-since-2022