UN finds national climate plans now promise only half the emission cuts it projected a year ago
With the United States dropped from the tally after leaving the Paris Agreement, pledges from 154 countries would leave 2035 emissions just 6% below 2019 levels.
Countries' latest climate plans would cut global greenhouse gas emissions only about half as much by 2035 as the United Nations (UN) projected a year ago, according to the UN's annual assessment of national pledges released Tuesday.
The assessment counted the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) of 154 countries, covering about 71% of global emissions, plus current policies in the rest of the world. Together they point to emissions about 6% below 2019 levels by 2035. Last year's update, based on 113 countries, put the figure at 12%. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has said emissions need to fall 60% over the same period to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The United States is a major reason for the shortfall, according to a piece published Tuesday by Matteo Civillini in Climate Home News. Last year's tally included a pledge made under former President Joe Biden to cut U.S. emissions 61% to 66% by 2035. Because the country has since left the Paris Agreement, that pledge was excluded, and U.S. projections now rest on current policies under President Donald Trump, which point to far higher pollution.
The roughly 40 plans submitted since last year were also weaker than the UN's earlier modeling had hoped. India's plan, filed in April, would let its emissions climb almost 64% above 2023 levels by 2035, according to Climate Action Tracker.
Current pledges put the world on course for 2.1 to 3.2 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century. UN climate chief Simon Stiell said collective progress remains insufficient and that the UN climate summit in Türkiye, known as COP31, can help close key gaps.
This brief is based on reporting by Matteo Civillini, published Oct. 27, 2026, in Climate Home News. Read the original: https://www.climatechangenews.com/2026/10/27/national-climate-plans-now-promise-half-the-emission-cuts-expected-by-un/
This article was produced with the assistance of AI tools and reviewed by an editor before publication.
