Climate change hits the 0–9 age group hardest

Led by an international team at Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB) and published on August 26, 2026 (Pietroiusti et al., 2026, “Age-specific exposure to human-induced increases in humid heat”,), the research combines climate models with age-disaggregated population data. Rather than merely recording observed warming, it uses attribution methodology to isolate the human-induced component. Heat stress is defined as days when the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) exceeds 28°C—the threshold for moderate heat stress.

• Children Face Over Double the Exposure of Older Adults: According to VUB, 560 million children aged 0–9 globally (43% of this age group) experience at least one additional month of heat stress per year due to human-driven climate change. For the 60–69 age group, the figure stands at 190 million (30%). VUB notes that children's relative exposure is roughly three times higher.

• Striking Disparities: A Carbon Brief analysis highlights that over 40% of children under 10 (~580 million) experience at least 20 extra heat stress days annually. Under current climate conditions, 11% of children under 10 suffer more than 100 additional heat stress days directly attributable to climate change (compared to 6% for ages 60–69). The number of children facing at least 150 heat stress days per year has surged from 120 million (9%) in a world without climate change to 350 million (27%) today.

• Future Projections (1.5°C and 2°C): Under the SSP2 population scenario, the number of children aged 0–9 experiencing at least one extra month of hazardous heat increases to 620 million (49%) at 1.5°C warming, and 650 million (59%) at 2°C. The share facing over 100 extra days rises to 13% at 1.5°C and 23% at 2°C.

• Geographic Inequality: The sharpest increases in humid heat are concentrated in the tropics and younger, lower-income nations (South/Southeast Asia and West Africa)—disproportionately burdening countries with the lowest historical emissions.

• Implications for Türkiye: While country-specific figures for Türkiye are not detailed, two factors stand out:

  1. Demographics: According to TurkStat 2024 data, children aged 0–17 account for 25.5% of Türkiye's population (well above the EU average of 17.8%), meaning heat stress impacts a proportionally larger child cohort.

  2. Urban Heat Island Effect: Data resolution constraints omit the urban heat island effect, suggesting actual heat burdens in humid coastal hubs like Istanbul, Izmir, and Mersin may be higher than estimated.

• Policy Implications: This study stands out by explicitly attributing age-specific heat burdens to human activity. If heat stress disproportionately impacts youth, cooling infrastructure in nurseries and schools, alongside targeted heatwave protocols, must become core priorities within climate adaptation budgets.