Heatwaves in Europe claim 'far more lives than expected'

Initial calculations by national health authorities following successive heatwaves in Europe during the summer of 2026 indicate far more deaths than anticipated in major European countries. Preliminary data from official monitoring systems in Germany, France, and Spain alone point to tens of thousands of deaths.

In Germany, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) estimates that 20,000 excess deaths occurred between calendar weeks 20 and 32 of the year. In its weekly heat-related deaths report, the institute attributes approximately 14,000 of these directly to heat using statistical modeling; the institute notes that this figure is a cautious estimate. In the RKI's series, which began in 1992, the previous highest figure was around 8,900 in 2018; 10,200 were reported for the summers of 1994 and 2003.

According to RKI data, approximately 9,600 of this year's heat-related deaths occurred in a single week, June 22-28. 10,500 were among the over-75 age group; the heat-related death rate for those over 85 was 193.6 per 100,000 people.

Highest rate in France since 2003

The public agency Santé publique France calculated at least 5,764 excess deaths in 92 departments for the June 17-July 2 heatwave: 21,674 deaths were observed compared to the expected 15,910, or 36.2 percent above expectations. The agency reports that this is the highest excess death rate seen in a heatwave since 2003. Two-thirds of the toll (at least 3,719 deaths) were in the 75+ age group; The most affected region is Île-de-France, with 1,999 excess deaths.

In the July 3-22 wave, at least 1,243 excess deaths (9.2% excess) were estimated across 78 departments. According to Météo-France data, July 2026 was the hottest month in France since measurements began in 1900. Santé publique France announced a provisional total of 7,300 for the waves experienced throughout the summer on August 19; the final figure will be published in October and excludes the ongoing wave at that time.

In Spain, the MoMo monitoring system, run by the Ministry of Health and the Instituto de Salud Carlos III, calculated the number of deaths attributed to high temperatures as of August 24 at 5,030 — the highest summer value since the beginning of the series. 1,028 deaths were recorded in June alone; This surpassed the June 2017 record (1,000).

Figures from other countries are similar: In Belgium, Sciensano reports 2,570 excess deaths for June 18–July 17, while in the Netherlands, calculations based on RIVM data give 968 excess deaths for June 22–July 5. In the UK, the UK Health Security Agency estimated 2,877 heat-related deaths for the May and June waves; this figure was 2,985 for the entire summer of 2022.