Scientists warn: Net-zero CO2 alone won't meet the 2°C target - methane cuts are urgent

New scientific modeling published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment shows that keeping global warming below critical thresholds requires urgent and sharp cuts in methane emissions. The study projects that even if atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels are brought to net zero, continued methane emissions at current rates would push global temperature rise above 1.85°C.

Methane tends to stay in the shadow of carbon dioxide in public debate, despite its significant role in climate change. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), methane is responsible for about 30 percent of the global temperature rise since the industrial revolution. Although it stays in the atmosphere for a much shorter time than CO2, its warming potential is more than 80 times that of carbon dioxide over a 20-year period — a figure confirmed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Carbon budget for 1.7°C may already be exhausted

One of the most critical findings of the new modeling concerns the impact of methane emissions on carbon budgets. According to the research, in a scenario with no cuts in methane emissions, the remaining carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.7°C is already exhausted. The finding is seen as one of the strongest signals that CO2-only net-zero strategies may not deliver the expected results. Since the research is based on a single scientific publication, the results still need to be confirmed with different climate models.

Meanwhile, the upward trend in global methane emissions is fueling concern. According to the IEA's Global Methane Tracker 2024 report, methane emissions from fossil fuel operations reached close to record levels in 2023, at 120 million tonnes. In the same period, large methane leak events detected by satellites increased by 50 percent compared with the previous year.