As global oil demand peaks, the countries most dependent on it have no backup plan

A new analysis from UK climate think tank E3G warns that the global shift away from oil could destabilize the nations least prepared for it, with risks reaching well beyond their borders.

Global oil demand is expected to plateau within the decade, likely peaking in the early 2030s, as producers compete over a shrinking pool of buyers. Low-cost producers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are positioned to win that fight; high-cost, oil-dependent economies are not.

The report names Nigeria, Iran, Angola, and Algeria as the most exposed, countries where oil revenue funds well over 40% of the government budget, with little economic diversification to fall back on. The projected damage is steep: Algeria could see an 87% drop in oil revenue, Nigeria over 60%, by 2030. Iraq and Libya currently draw 70-90% of state revenue from oil.

Co-author Beth Walker's warning is the real headline here: "When producer countries adapt alone, the transition becomes riskier globally, producer vulnerability transforms into a security risk." The report points to civil unrest, mass migration, and weakened state capacity as plausible outcomes, with knock-on instability reaching Europe and Africa.

Reporting based on research by E3G. Translated and adapted with attribution. Original: https://www.iklimhaber.org/petrolden-cikis-sancili-olabilir/