This year's US state elections are shaping up to be a test of climate policy's staying power

According to a piece published Thursday by Dan Gearino on Inside Climate News, fewer than 25 races out of more than 7,000 state legislative seats up this cycle could determine whether Democrats gain as many as five new state government trifectas, meaning full control of the governorship and both legislative chambers, or none at all. Republicans currently hold trifectas in 23 states, Democrats in 16, with 11 states split between the parties.

Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, described in the piece as the Northern Three, are seen as the states most likely to flip to full Democratic control, with Wisconsin flagged as having particularly strong potential for renewable energy legislation if that happens. Arizona and Pennsylvania are longer-shot opportunities where Democrats currently hold gubernatorial leads, while Nevada's outcome hinges entirely on the governor's race between Republican incumbent Joe Lombardo and Democratic challenger Aaron Ford. Kansas, meanwhile, is flagged as Republicans' best chance to pick up a new trifecta of their own.

With major federal climate legislation unlikely given the current makeup of Congress, control of these state governments matters directly: governors and legislatures set the rules for utility regulation, permitting, and clean energy incentives that shape how quickly renewable projects actually get built. That makes this year's under-the-radar state races a more immediate battleground for climate policy than anything likely to move in Washington over the next several years.

Dan Gearino, Inside Climate News: https://insideclimatenews.org/news/17092026/inside-clean-energy-key-state-elections/